Coming into the Reds 2011 season the city of Cincinnati was electric with baseball talk and high hopes after a magical 2010 season that saw the Reds win the N.L. Crown in a tight race with the Cardinals and return to the playoffs. It was a magic that seemed to carry over into 2011 at least in Opening Day with 2 down bottom of the 9th walk off home run by Ramon Hernandez to win the game. However despite that win truth was the Reds were limping if not almost down right stumbling right out of the gate. Key Injuries to Pitching and Position players plagued the Reds all season long. Here is a list of injuries the Reds had in 2011:
03/22/2011 Johnny Cueto 15-Day DL Right biceps irritation
03/24/2011 Homer Bailey 15-Day DL Right shoulder impingement
03/25/2011 Jose Arredondo 15-Day DL Right shoulder inflammation
03/27/2011 Fred Lewis 15-Day DL Strained right oblique
03/29/2011 Jared Burton 60-Day DL Right shoulder inflammation
04/13/2011 Brandon Phillips Day-to-Day Left game – groin injury
04/17/2011 Juan Francisco 15-Day DL Strained left calf
04/21/2011 Scott Rolen 15-Day DL Strained left shoulder
05/14/2011 Ryan Hanigan Day-to-Day Hand
05/16/2011 Aroldis Chapman 15-Day DL Left shoulder inflammation
05/23/2011 Sam LeCure 15-Day DL Strained right forearm
05/24/2011 Matt Maloney 60-Day DL Strained left oblique
05/27/2011 Homer Bailey 15-Day DL Right shoulder sprain
06/26/2011 Jay Bruce Day-to-Day Illness
07/10/2011 Aroldis Chapman Day-to-Day Ankle injury
07/15/2011 Jose Arredondo 15-Day DL Strained right forearm
07/21/2011 Scott Rolen 15-Day DL Left shoulder surgery – out 4-6 weeks
07/23/2011 Jay Bruce Day-to-Day Inner ear infection
07/24/2011 Zack Cozart 60-Day DL Left elbow surgery – out for season
08/06/2011 Chris Heisey 15-Day DL Strained left oblique
08/08/2011 Logan Ondrusek 15-Day DL Strained right forearm
09/18/2011 Dontrelle Willis Day-to-Day Back spasms
09/19/2011 Yonder Alonso Day-to-Day Ankle
As you can see it was not only the number of injuries but the short amount of time in which they happened in. Coming out of Spring training Cueto, Bailey were injured and even though not listed Arroyo who caught some strange illness in spring training was far from 100% and never really recovered all season long. Essentially 3 of the 5 starting pitchers in the rotation were missing out of the gate. The bullpen was short with Jose Arredondo and Jared Burton who were also injured before the start of the season. Then in April the Reds lost 3rd base with Juan Francisco and Scott Rolen going out with in a week of each other. May was not better with the loss of Chapman who was over used and had to go down to Louisville to get straightened back out. With these key injuries and a strong Milwaukee and St. Louis teams the Reds (who on paper were still a good team from 2010) fell behind and never really recovered.

The current 2012 National League Central division looks vastly different than the 2011 one did that combined with upcoming contracts of Star Reds Players makes 2012 the Reds time to shine. Despite Pittsburg’s brief days in first place in 2011 the two major competitors to the Reds in the N. L. Central have been the Milwaukee Brewers and I hate say it but the 2011 World series Champions St. Louis Cardinals. When you look at the world champs (cough chumps cough) 2 major changes are the loss of Albert Pujols and Manager Tony Larussa. Obviously without these two the brains the brawn if you will makes St. Louis all be it still a good team but much weaker. In Milwaukee another key first baseman Prince Fielder was lost in free agency and N.L. MVP Ryan Braun is looking at a possible 50 game suspension for breaking the MLB’s illegal substance policy this will make the Brewers considerably weaker as well. Also The Reds know that the contracts of two of their stars will be coming up in the next few seasons namely Bandon Phillips and Joey Votto. With a good possibility of not being able to resign either. REDS general Manager Walt Jocketty knows that the time is now more than ever.

With the pressure on to win and win now Walt Jocketty kept his promise to make key moves to help the Reds win in 2012. The Laundry list for the Reds was a number 1 or 2 starting pitcher, figure out the closer situation with Francisco Corderos contract up, fill the left field position, and find a backup at the Short stop position. While many Reds fans were upset with Jocketty when the winter meetings came and gone with no moves by the Reds. Walt was quick to make up ground in January. Jocketty started with a 4 for 1 trade with San Diego which saw much touted prospects Yonder Alsono, switch hitting Catcher Yasmani Grandal and one time electric Reds starting pitcher Edison Volquez for Young Pitching star Matt Latos (who is also under Reds control for many years to come). Also right-handed reliever Brad Boxberger was the given to SD in the deal. Latos will most likely be the number 2 pitcher behind Cueto when the season starts with the potential to someday be the Reds ace. Walt lost no time and a few days later made a trade to bolster the bullpen with the Cubs to get setup man Sean Marshall. Then in a shocker the Reds signed Former Phillies Closer Ryan Madson. Ryan Ludwick was added from free agency to help with Left field. Walt also traded with Phillies to get Wilson Valdez to help back up Cozart at Short stop. Jocketty is now been busy offering minor league deals with invites to spring training to help with depth and create competition in spring training. In a very busy January Walt Jocketty and the Reds are now retooled to make their 2012 run.

As you can see the Reds who were already a good team despite the bad luck with injuries in 2011 have looked around the N.L. Central in 2012 and have gone all in by cashing in many of their top prospects and making key free agent signings. The only question that remains is: are the fans all in as well? One of the black eyes on Reds fans was in 2010 when the Reds made their magical run was the lack of fans in the stands. We Reds fans have a team storied in fame and tradition. We owe it not only to ourselves but also to fathers, Uncles, Aunts, Mothers, Grand Fathers and Grand Mothers who passed down their love of the game to us to this year more than any other years past get out and support this Reds team. Not just to go to the games but be excited about it. We need to follow this team from Spring training to Post season. If you can’t go to the game listen to Marty make the call on the radio. Take your kids because I believe this season will be one not to forget. It’s going to be a fun season I am not saying it will be easy St. Louis is still the chumps I mean champs and the brewers will not go down easy and even Pittsburg will prove to be tough from time to time but I don’t just believe, I know this team can WIN. They will not break your hearts so let’s put our hearts back into this team. So LET’S GO REDS!!!!!!!!!

Ryan Michael Madson (Mad Dog)

Position: Pitcher
Bats: Left, Throws: Right
Height: 6′ 6″, Weight: 200 lb.
Born: August 28, 1980 in Long Beach, CA (Age 31)
High School: Valley View (Moreno Co., CA)
Drafted by the Philadelphia Phillies in the 9th round of the 1998 amateur draft.
Signed: June 10, 1998.
Debut: September 27, 2003
Team: Phillies 2003-2011 2012: REDS
2012 Contract Status: 1 year 6 million (some money deferred) 2013: Mutual option 11 million with a 2.5 million buy out
Service Time: (01/2012): 8.027,
Free Agent: 2013 with mutual option
Agents: Scott Boras

Pros: Age: 31, 2011: 4-2 with a 2.37 ERA and 32 saves in 34 chances plus more
Cons: 1 season (2011) as a full time closer

Analysis: Of the original top 9 closers list I had for this series Ryan Madson was number 1 on it. I believe of all the free agent closers out there at the beginning of the off season there is none that is a better for the REDs than Ryan Madson. Madson was a stater early in his career before being moved to the Bullpen and then became the setup man for Philly. In the 2010 season Ryan took over for the Injured Brad Lidge on a limited bases were he converted 5 saves out of 10 opportunities. Then in 2011 he be came the Phillies full time closer. As I listed up top in the pros category in 2011 Madson was 4-2 with a 2.37 ERA and convert 32 saves in 34 opportunities but thats not all. He finishes 2011 with 17 consecutive scoreless innings with 9 of those being saves. As a matter of fact of his 62 appearances, 53 were scoreless outings. A closer look at 2011 shows of the 60 and 2/3 innings Madson had 54 hits, 16 walks(8 of which were intentional) and 62 strikeouts. If you worried about him pitching in Great American Ball Park (AKA Cape Canaveral North) he comes from Philly which is similar to GABP and last year he only gave up 2 HRs 1 of which was at home. In fact in his career he has only given up 5 HRs total while pitching in Cincinnati. Of all the moves Walt Jocketty and the Reds have made this offseason I believe this to be the best one. I believe it to be a major upgrade at closer over Cordero not only is he younger than COCO but has a better strike out average of 9.2 per inning compared to Cordero’s 5.4. Also lets not forget he brings some World series experience with him from Philly as well. Well done Uncle Walt and welcome to Cincy Mad Dog!!!

Ryan Madson’s Stats:

Number 8:

Matthew Dicus Capps

Position: Pitcher
Bats: Right, Throws: Right
Height: 6′ 2″, Weight: 245 lb.
Born: September 3, 1983 in Douglasville, GA (Age 28)
High School: Alexander (Douglasville, GA)
Drafted by the Pittsburgh Pirates in the 7th round of the 2002 amateur draft.
Signed: July 8, 2002.
Debut: September 16, 2005
Teams: Pirates/Twins/Nationals 2005-2011
2012 Contract Status: Free Agent, 1 yr/$7.15M
Service Time: (01/2012): 6.017, Free Agent: 2012 Agents: Paul Kinzer, previously: Arn Tellem

Pros: age 28, Career year 2011 42 saves, 2.74 ERA, 2010 ALLSTAR
Cons: 2009 stats 27 saves with a 5.08 ERA

Analysis: At the first sight of Matt Capps one might think he came straight in from the recliner watching the game rather from the bullpen especially as a closer. However he has the stuff to shut the door it just depends on which Matt shows up to play. In 2011 he had a career all star year with 42 saves and a 2.74 ERA. However in 2009 he had his worst year with a 5.08 ERA. So the questions are: “Is Matt Capps finally coming into his own at age 28? Was it a fluke year he will most likely never repeat? Did he just play well this one year to get the big pay off? Its hard to look at Capps and think he is not a slacker but if other larger players like CC Sabathia have taught me anything it is you can be a PHAT ass and still be one hell of a player. Last Year he made 7.5 million. I think he will asking for at least double that or most likely more. So does Walt Jocketty want to pay Capps more than he did Cordero? 42 saves is a hard stat not to stop and look at so I think if the Reds want to expand the payroll a little bit Capps is worth the money over a multi year deal.

Stats (click to make larger):

Up next in series: Brad Lidge.

This series will not examine the prospect of home grown closers but rather the free Agency as it is more oriented to the current season which is the off season of baseball. Examination of 9 (was 10 now minus Papelbon) of the top closers in the free agency/arbitration.

Today we will begin with Number 9:

David Allan Aardsma

Position: Pitcher
Bats: Right, Throws: Right
Height: 6′ 3″, Weight: 210 lb.
Born: December 27, 1981 in Denver, CO (Age 29)
High School: Cherry Creek (Englewood, CO)
Schools: Pennsylvania State University, Rice University
Drafted by the San Francisco Giants in the 1st round (22nd pick) of the 2003 amateur draft.
Signed: June 29, 2003.
Debut: April 6, 2004

MLB Teams: Mariners/RedSox/Cubs/WhiteSox/Giants 2004-2010
2012 Contract Status: 3rd-Year Arb Eligible, 1 yr/$4.5M (11)
Service Time (01/2012): 5.082, Arb Eligible: 2012,
Free Agent: 2013 Agents: Octagon, previously: Jamie Murphy

Pros: Age:only 29, Saves:31 (2010), Blown Saves: only 5 (2010)
Cons: ERA: increased from 2.52 in ’09 to 3.44 in ’10, Injury: offseason hip surgery

Analysis: Aardsma is a well proven closer with decent command. His decline in statistics in 2010 may well have been injury related and if you have to have hip surgery it would be better at 29 than say 37. Still hip surgery is nothing to take lightly and even more so for a pitcher especially a closer. If the trade is right meaning not giving up a lot than perhaps some minor prospects then Jocketty may take the risk with the price is right at 4.5 million(Arbitration pending). I however would probably look else were in the market as the injury would be to risky. Then again if the Reds get in a bind say putting in Massett (AKA:Mr. I can’t pitch in April) in the closer role then Aardsma would be the man.

Stats (click on to make larger):

3rd base is a power position in the Majors, but is also a Hot Corner. But for a team that lacks a little pop in the lineup Aramis would be a good fit for the Reds Lineup. Last season Aramis batted .306 with 26 HRs and 93 RBIs. He also added 35 doubles which helped him win his first Silver Slugger Award. I know, I know what you are thinking… “Ankenbauer is pushing for the Reds to pick up a Cub?” but when you look at what our lineup would look like its hard not to want him. After all he hit .306 playing essentially the same teams he’d see next year as a Red since Chicago and Cincinnati are in the same division. Take a look at what the Lineup would be with him taking the corner at GABP next year.

1 – Zack Cozart (ss)

2 – Brandon Phillips (2b)

3 – Joey Votto (1b)

4 – Aramis Ramirez (3b)

5 – Jay Bruce (of)

6 – Yonder Alonso (of)

7 – Drew Stubbs(of)

8 – Ryan Hanigan or Devin Mesoraco (c)

That’s a pretty potent 2 thru 6 if you ask me..

When going into this offseason I had a few thoughts about moves the Reds needed to make.. Here are a couple of them…

1) Trade Joey Votto… He doesn’t want to be a Red for his entire career and he isn’t willing to take any type of discount to be a Red again. So trade him and get someone that we can use to better our lineup. After all Yonder Alonso is a first basemen and would fill in fine defensively for Votto should he leave. A couple clubs have been rumored as to wanting to get Votto to help build their prospective team. Two of those teams are the Mariners and the Blue Jays.. One would make a “Send the House” type offer and One would send a “one for one” type trade offer. The Blue Jays want Votto because they want the Canadian to play on his home soil, and they figure that will boost ticket sales. They would probably be willing to trade Jose Bautista for Votto. More than likely it would be a multi-player deal with Votto and Bautista being the Mega names involved. I like this one.. The Mariners have been rumored to want to send some Major League talent (mainly relievers, one of which is righty Brandon League) to the Reds in exchange for Votto. I personally don’t like this idea considering you don’t trade everyday players for “once every so often” players. Just look back at the trade the Reds made with the Rangers involving Josh Hamilton… Ugh.. NO THANKS, we’ve seen that outcome already… lol

2) Trade for Top of Line Starter… James Shields of Tampa Bay Rays is apparently being rumored as being available. If in fact this is true then the Reds need to be involved with at least discussions to get the 6’4” righty. Not sure what they would need to give up to get him but I’m sure it would be Prospects who could be major league ready soon.. because the Rays are going for Cheaper / Younger talent, instead of Expensive / Veteran talent. I’m sure one or two of our Pitchers would be involved in that deal. Like Wood or someone… Another Righty who’d I’d like to see the Reds get would be Seattle’s Felix Hernandez, however I don’t think he is available.. J

3) Trade for a New Manager… If the Marlins can do it then why cant the Reds? lol

While I like the idea of a manager thinking outside the box I believe this move would be disastrous for Bruce if this were to become an every day event. If opportunity presents itself IE we have 5+ game lead in the division or we are playing a very weak opponent and can easily catch up then sure experiment all you want but not too much. Especially with Bruce who struggled mightily through most of last season before the light came on at the end. I think he has confidence now but that could be washed away quickly if Dusty messes with hi too much. Also for those of you who watched last year Jim Edmonds really took Bruce under his wing and was often coaching him in the club house and so far this spring Jim is back with an invite to St. Louis’ camp. Take a look at graphs and form your own opinions on should Bruce be a leadoff or cleanup hitter this season.

Travis Wood’s Final numbers for 2010:

Homer Bailey’s Final numbers for 2010:

Leake Pitched a total of 138.1 IP

Mike Leakes Final numbers for 2010:

http://www.my601.com/content/sports/story/billy-hamilton-reds-mississippi/4T-aFoqKIku14nA7RqZt4g.cspx

Courtesy of my601.com/Fox40 News

“What it did,” said Harang, “is fatigue me beyond the point of recovery. I started to change my arm angle to compensate for the fatigue and that’s when my forearm started to bother me.”

In all fairness lets take a look at it from a stat perspective. In the Three seasons before 2008 (including OAK) Harang in 101 starts had a 3.77 ERA with almost 678 innings pitched not bad and definitely worthy to be the RED’s ACE. During the extra innings game Harang pitch 63 pitches in 3 scoreless innings with 9 strike outs. . The following outing against the Pirates 4 days later he gave up 6 runs in 4 innings throwing 73 pitches. From there he tail spun out of control 18 appearances after the relief game in SD his ERA ballooned up to 5.88 and was then on the DL for a month with Arm strain. In 2009 and 2010 things really did not get any better with a combined 46 starts ( only 26 in 2009) Harang had an ERA of 4.66.

After looking at the stats you can make the argument that it was the turning point in his career and it easily plays into Dusty Baker’s critics reputation of ruining pitchers. However if Harang knew that he had arm fatigue from the relief and start on short rest then why did he say something? Why did he change his arm mechanics to try and compensate when good old rest relaxation and an ice pack could help? It’s not like the Reds where in any real sort of contention. On May 24th 2008 the day before the fateful SD game the Reds where in last place 6.5 games back of the Cubs. A month later June 24th the Reds where still in last place 10 games back and finished the season in 2nd to last place. Now the whole story isn’t told here I am sure. Did Harang push himself because he was the ace of the staff and try to play through it to help lead the pitching staff by example? Did Dusty and Dick Pole pitching coach at the time push Harang to keep playing? I am not sure and we may never know. Hind sight being 20/20 again the question bags to be asked at some point before the last month of the season maybe even after two starts why didn’t Harang just sit and rest rather than mess his arm up by trying new arm mechanics? Also there is one other factor to consider Harang also turned 30 shortly before that relief appearance. Maybe the relief appearance was just a straw that broke a camels back?

In the end looking from the outside in it just seems to easy to take what all of Dusty’s critics have labeled him with and use it as an excuse to justify to the fans of San Deigo of why they should give him his shot. In all honesty with the exception of if he pitches against the Reds I hope he does well and not only gets his shot but also excels and makes a successful come back. I always liked Harangatang he seemed to be upstanding man as well as player and I wish him all the best. When It comes to this issue however I have to call it as I see it and to me I call it an excuse.