WHO WILL CLOSE THE REDS DOOR? (PART 2 OF 9)

Today we will continue with our special look at top 9 free agent closers that the Reds might be interested in.

Number 8:

Matthew Dicus Capps

Position: Pitcher
Bats: Right, Throws: Right
Height: 6′ 2″, Weight: 245 lb.
Born: September 3, 1983 in Douglasville, GA (Age 28)
High School: Alexander (Douglasville, GA)
Drafted by the Pittsburgh Pirates in the 7th round of the 2002 amateur draft.
Signed: July 8, 2002.
Debut: September 16, 2005
Teams: Pirates/Twins/Nationals 2005-2011
2012 Contract Status: Free Agent, 1 yr/$7.15M
Service Time: (01/2012): 6.017, Free Agent: 2012 Agents: Paul Kinzer, previously: Arn Tellem

Pros: age 28, Career year 2011 42 saves, 2.74 ERA, 2010 ALLSTAR
Cons: 2009 stats 27 saves with a 5.08 ERA

Analysis: At the first sight of Matt Capps one might think he came straight in from the recliner watching the game rather from the bullpen especially as a closer. However he has the stuff to shut the door it just depends on which Matt shows up to play. In 2011 he had a career all star year with 42 saves and a 2.74 ERA. However in 2009 he had his worst year with a 5.08 ERA. So the questions are: “Is Matt Capps finally coming into his own at age 28? Was it a fluke year he will most likely never repeat? Did he just play well this one year to get the big pay off? Its hard to look at Capps and think he is not a slacker but if other larger players like CC Sabathia have taught me anything it is you can be a PHAT ass and still be one hell of a player. Last Year he made 7.5 million. I think he will asking for at least double that or most likely more. So does Walt Jocketty want to pay Capps more than he did Cordero? 42 saves is a hard stat not to stop and look at so I think if the Reds want to expand the payroll a little bit Capps is worth the money over a multi year deal.

Stats (click to make larger):

Up next in series: Brad Lidge.

WHO WILL CLOSE THE REDS DOOR? (PART1 OF 9)

Since the decline of the option on Reds Closer Francisco Cordero was announce the door has been opened to the question of: “Who will close the door for the REDS in 2012?” There was a field of 10 closers to talk about however Johnathan Papelbon sign a 4 year deal with the Philly’s for an estimated 50 million dollars (final details not yet known) thereby raising the expectations of the closer’s agents monetarily and intensifying the stress levels of REDs fans suddenly realizing that they may be with out a proven closer for 2012.

This series will not examine the prospect of home grown closers but rather the free Agency as it is more oriented to the current season which is the off season of baseball. Examination of 9 (was 10 now minus Papelbon) of the top closers in the free agency/arbitration.

Today we will begin with Number 9:

David Allan Aardsma

Position: Pitcher
Bats: Right, Throws: Right
Height: 6′ 3″, Weight: 210 lb.
Born: December 27, 1981 in Denver, CO (Age 29)
High School: Cherry Creek (Englewood, CO)
Schools: Pennsylvania State University, Rice University
Drafted by the San Francisco Giants in the 1st round (22nd pick) of the 2003 amateur draft.
Signed: June 29, 2003.
Debut: April 6, 2004

MLB Teams: Mariners/RedSox/Cubs/WhiteSox/Giants 2004-2010
2012 Contract Status: 3rd-Year Arb Eligible, 1 yr/$4.5M (11)
Service Time (01/2012): 5.082, Arb Eligible: 2012,
Free Agent: 2013 Agents: Octagon, previously: Jamie Murphy

Pros: Age:only 29, Saves:31 (2010), Blown Saves: only 5 (2010)
Cons: ERA: increased from 2.52 in ’09 to 3.44 in ’10, Injury: offseason hip surgery

Analysis: Aardsma is a well proven closer with decent command. His decline in statistics in 2010 may well have been injury related and if you have to have hip surgery it would be better at 29 than say 37. Still hip surgery is nothing to take lightly and even more so for a pitcher especially a closer. If the trade is right meaning not giving up a lot than perhaps some minor prospects then Jocketty may take the risk with the price is right at 4.5 million(Arbitration pending). I however would probably look else were in the market as the injury would be to risky. Then again if the Reds get in a bind say putting in Massett (AKA:Mr. I can’t pitch in April) in the closer role then Aardsma would be the man.

Stats (click on to make larger):

Why the Reds should sign Aramis Ramirez…

-by AnkZone Sports

3rd base is a power position in the Majors, but is also a Hot Corner. But for a team that lacks a little pop in the lineup Aramis would be a good fit for the Reds Lineup. Last season Aramis batted .306 with 26 HRs and 93 RBIs. He also added 35 doubles which helped him win his first Silver Slugger Award. I know, I know what you are thinking… “Ankenbauer is pushing for the Reds to pick up a Cub?” but when you look at what our lineup would look like its hard not to want him. After all he hit .306 playing essentially the same teams he’d see next year as a Red since Chicago and Cincinnati are in the same division. Take a look at what the Lineup would be with him taking the corner at GABP next year.

1 – Zack Cozart (ss)

2 – Brandon Phillips (2b)

3 – Joey Votto (1b)

4 – Aramis Ramirez (3b)

5 – Jay Bruce (of)

6 – Yonder Alonso (of)

7 – Drew Stubbs(of)

8 – Ryan Hanigan or Devin Mesoraco (c)

That’s a pretty potent 2 thru 6 if you ask me..

Trades the Reds need to make this offseason…

-by AnkZone Sports

When going into this offseason I had a few thoughts about moves the Reds needed to make.. Here are a couple of them…

1) Trade Joey Votto… He doesn’t want to be a Red for his entire career and he isn’t willing to take any type of discount to be a Red again. So trade him and get someone that we can use to better our lineup. After all Yonder Alonso is a first basemen and would fill in fine defensively for Votto should he leave. A couple clubs have been rumored as to wanting to get Votto to help build their prospective team. Two of those teams are the Mariners and the Blue Jays.. One would make a “Send the House” type offer and One would send a “one for one” type trade offer. The Blue Jays want Votto because they want the Canadian to play on his home soil, and they figure that will boost ticket sales. They would probably be willing to trade Jose Bautista for Votto. More than likely it would be a multi-player deal with Votto and Bautista being the Mega names involved. I like this one.. The Mariners have been rumored to want to send some Major League talent (mainly relievers, one of which is righty Brandon League) to the Reds in exchange for Votto. I personally don’t like this idea considering you don’t trade everyday players for “once every so often” players. Just look back at the trade the Reds made with the Rangers involving Josh Hamilton… Ugh.. NO THANKS, we’ve seen that outcome already… lol

2) Trade for Top of Line Starter… James Shields of Tampa Bay Rays is apparently being rumored as being available. If in fact this is true then the Reds need to be involved with at least discussions to get the 6’4” righty. Not sure what they would need to give up to get him but I’m sure it would be Prospects who could be major league ready soon.. because the Rays are going for Cheaper / Younger talent, instead of Expensive / Veteran talent. I’m sure one or two of our Pitchers would be involved in that deal. Like Wood or someone… Another Righty who’d I’d like to see the Reds get would be Seattle’s Felix Hernandez, however I don’t think he is available.. J

3) Trade for a New Manager… If the Marlins can do it then why cant the Reds? lol

JAY BRUCE CAREER BY BATTING POSITION (GRAPHS)

Recently on Twitter I have heard Dusty is thinking about starting at lead off or even clean up in the Batting order this season. My first thought was “huh… seriously???” However the more thought I gave it the more curious I got. I decided to look up Bruce’s MLB Career stats based on batting order. After looking over those stats I decided to graph them to get a better visual of it. Below I have put together five graphs and posted them on the blog. ( you can make it bigger by clicking on the graphs)

As you can see there seems to be a lack of experience for Bruce at Leadoff with only 112 at bats and even less at clean up with 31 at bats. In addition Bruce stats at those 2 batting order positions are not very supportive. At the leadoff position Bruce does have a decent AVG at .277 however he does not have what it takes to be a leadoff hitter in respect to base running as he has no stolen bases and caught stealing twice. Dusty also has better options at both batting order positions. At Leadoff with Stubbs (who let’s hope has learned to make contact with ball) and newly acquired Fred Lewis who if nothing else has the experience at leadoff. At clean up you have the 2010 NL MVP Joey Votto who I am sure will do very well at that position and should be a no brainer for it.

While I like the idea of a manager thinking outside the box I believe this move would be disastrous for Bruce if this were to become an every day event. If opportunity presents itself IE we have 5+ game lead in the division or we are playing a very weak opponent and can easily catch up then sure experiment all you want but not too much. Especially with Bruce who struggled mightily through most of last season before the light came on at the end. I think he has confidence now but that could be washed away quickly if Dusty messes with hi too much. Also for those of you who watched last year Jim Edmonds really took Bruce under his wing and was often coaching him in the club house and so far this spring Jim is back with an invite to St. Louis’ camp. Take a look at graphs and form your own opinions on should Bruce be a leadoff or cleanup hitter this season.

Leake, Bailey and Wood 2010 Graphs (3 of 3): Travis Wood 2010

With recent talk around the Web of the race for the last two spots in the rotation Heating up between Mike Leake, Travis Wood and Homer Bailey. I thought I would take a minute and show the 2010 stats in graphic form of Leake Bailey and Wood. No opinions or conclusions just 3 quick graphs and let you make of it what you will and give you a few facts to quote as we watch this race play it self out. Here is the Third of 3 posts, lets take a look at Travis Wood:

Travis Wood’s Final numbers for 2010:

Leake, Bailey and Wood 2010 Graphs (2 of 3): Homer Bailey 2010

With recent talk around the Web of the race for the last two spots in the rotation Heating up between Mike Leake, Travis Wood and Homer Bailey. I thought I would take a minute and show the 2010 stats in graphic form of Leake Bailey and Wood. No opinions or conclusions just 3 quick graphs and let you make of it what you will and give you a few facts to quote as we watch this race play it self out. Here is the secomd of 3 posts, lets take a look at Homer Bailey. You will notice by the graphs his extened time on the DL.

Homer Bailey’s Final numbers for 2010:

Leake, Bailey and Wood 2010 Graphs (1 of 3): MIKE LEAKE 2010

With recent talk around the Web of the race for the last two spots in the rotation Heating up between Mike Leake, Travis Wood and Homer Bailey. I thought I would take a minute and show the 2010 stats in graphic form of Leake Bailey and Wood. No opinions or conclusions just 3 quick graphs and let you make of it what you will and give you a few facts to quote as we watch this race play it self out. Here is the first of 3 posts. I will start with Mike Leake:

Leake Pitched a total of 138.1 IP

Mike Leakes Final numbers for 2010:

Reds down on the Farm: Prospect Billy Hamilton Report

Heres a short report on REDs young prospect Billy Hamilton:

http://www.my601.com/content/sports/story/billy-hamilton-reds-mississippi/4T-aFoqKIku14nA7RqZt4g.cspx

Courtesy of my601.com/Fox40 News

LEGIT OR EXCUSE: HARANG CARERR DAMAGING REILF

The 2011 season is nearly upon us but before I can start that there one piece of old Reds business to address. After almost 3 years Aaron Harang has come forward admitting that it was indeed his relief appearance in May 25 2008 against San Diego that caused his pitching down fall. To quote Harang:

“What it did,” said Harang, “is fatigue me beyond the point of recovery. I started to change my arm angle to compensate for the fatigue and that’s when my forearm started to bother me.”

In all fairness lets take a look at it from a stat perspective. In the Three seasons before 2008 (including OAK) Harang in 101 starts had a 3.77 ERA with almost 678 innings pitched not bad and definitely worthy to be the RED’s ACE. During the extra innings game Harang pitch 63 pitches in 3 scoreless innings with 9 strike outs. . The following outing against the Pirates 4 days later he gave up 6 runs in 4 innings throwing 73 pitches. From there he tail spun out of control 18 appearances after the relief game in SD his ERA ballooned up to 5.88 and was then on the DL for a month with Arm strain. In 2009 and 2010 things really did not get any better with a combined 46 starts ( only 26 in 2009) Harang had an ERA of 4.66.

After looking at the stats you can make the argument that it was the turning point in his career and it easily plays into Dusty Baker’s critics reputation of ruining pitchers. However if Harang knew that he had arm fatigue from the relief and start on short rest then why did he say something? Why did he change his arm mechanics to try and compensate when good old rest relaxation and an ice pack could help? It’s not like the Reds where in any real sort of contention. On May 24th 2008 the day before the fateful SD game the Reds where in last place 6.5 games back of the Cubs. A month later June 24th the Reds where still in last place 10 games back and finished the season in 2nd to last place. Now the whole story isn’t told here I am sure. Did Harang push himself because he was the ace of the staff and try to play through it to help lead the pitching staff by example? Did Dusty and Dick Pole pitching coach at the time push Harang to keep playing? I am not sure and we may never know. Hind sight being 20/20 again the question bags to be asked at some point before the last month of the season maybe even after two starts why didn’t Harang just sit and rest rather than mess his arm up by trying new arm mechanics? Also there is one other factor to consider Harang also turned 30 shortly before that relief appearance. Maybe the relief appearance was just a straw that broke a camels back?

In the end looking from the outside in it just seems to easy to take what all of Dusty’s critics have labeled him with and use it as an excuse to justify to the fans of San Deigo of why they should give him his shot. In all honesty with the exception of if he pitches against the Reds I hope he does well and not only gets his shot but also excels and makes a successful come back. I always liked Harangatang he seemed to be upstanding man as well as player and I wish him all the best. When It comes to this issue however I have to call it as I see it and to me I call it an excuse.

2010 flash back:Video Chapman 105 fastball!!!

Just think what a little more control could do with this:
2010 flash back:Video Chapman 105 fastball!!!

Poll: Should Chapman be a Starter in 2011?

Where have we been?

You may have noticed that Redsnetlive was going along very well and then all the sudden just as the NL Central race heated up we went silent. I want to apologize to those of you who did follow us and sent us positive comments about our blog. What simply happened was life unfortunately none of us here at RNL are independently wealthy and have to work for a living and also have families with young kids. I will admit while I was highly excited about the REDS and the run in 2010 and our post season appearance but I watched it changing diapers and working a 2nd shift job. While my love for REDs baseball is strong my family will always come first. Now all that said and I can’t speak for the other members of this blog but when I can I intend to write as much as I can about the 2011 REDs. Its been a brutal winter and in 3 short days spring or at least the baseball part of it will begin and I am excited!!! I was looking at the schedule this year and its not going to be easy at all but I believe in this REDs team. A Reds team thanks to Mr. Jocketty has kept its core players together. The future looks brighter than it has in a very long time! So lets Play Ball and I will try my best to add my 2 cents to the blogsphere here at REDS NET LIVE!!!!

Harang needs to be shown the door…

CINCINNATI - Ok, I know what you are thinking. Why am I so down on Harang? After all he has been our opening day starter for the past few seasons.. Well “You wouldn’t try to drive your car without any wheels would you?” That’s what it seems Dusty is doing by running the Harang-a-tang out there.. His wheels have fallen off and he’s getting beat like a red headed step child.. (sorry to all of you who are Red Heads.. lol). In his past 8 trips to the mound he has a 2-2 record, which you say isn’t too bad.. I say look at his numbers.. In those 8 starts he has 41IP 51HA 21ER 19BBA and 26Ks.. Not really the type of numbers you expect from your quote unquote “ACE of your Staff”. We are in the middle of a pennant race here and you don’t do anything to hurt your chances on purpose.. Harang though he does a lot for the community and I’m sure is a great guy, his days in Cincinnati seem to be coming to an end faster than we thought. If you remember, at the beginning of the season there was questions on if we would be exercising his option for next year. I’m sure nobody is really thinking that way now, especially with the emergence of Leake, Wood, and LeCure. I’m sure Dusty kinda feels a little sympathy for the Veteran but at the end of the day, in the words of Herm Edwards- “You have to play to win the Game”.

You run your best stuff out there and hope it beats their best stuff. You can’t expect a car with no wheels to get you to your destination, nor can you expect anything different from your pitcher. Its been a good ride for the most part Aaron, best of luck to you in your future endeavours, but I don’t think Cincy is the place for you any longer..

REDS Vs Dogers 8-22-10 Lineup & Pitcher Vs Batter

1. Phillips 4
2. Cairo 5
3. Votto 3
4. Gomes 7
5. Heisey 9
6. Hernandez 2
7. Stubbs 8
8. Janish 6
9. Arroyo RHP

Some Breaking News: Sweet Lou will retire from Baseball after managing the Cubs game today… Happy Trails Lou always will have a soft place in my heart for the 1990 Championship and of course throwing first base!!! lol

Reds’ negotiations with top pick progressing

By Mark Sheldon / MLB.com

08/15/10 12:06 PM ET

CINCINNATI — In all likelihood, the Reds won’t have Yasmani Grandal signed and sealed until Monday before the deadline to sign all players taken in the 2010 First-Year Player Draft.

However, Grandal has at least already been delivered to Cincinnati. The former University of Miami catcher has spent the past two nights watching the Reds-Marlins games from general manager Walt Jocketty’s suite, seated next to suspended manager Dusty Baker.

“They’re progressing,” Jocketty said of the talks with Grandal’s agent, Greg Genske. “We had him in [Saturday] for a physical. We wanted to get it out of the way, so we didn’t have to wait until the last minute.”

Click here to read entire article at Mark My Word